French Open: Women’s Preview

The tennis season’s second major begins on May 25^th. Since the clay court swing began on the green clay of Charleston, South Carolina, we have seen several intriguing story lines. Sharapova continued her strong play on the clay, winning titles in Stuttgart and Madrid. Simona Halep made her first career premier mandatory final in Madrid. As a result, she became the 56^th in WTA history to be ranked Top 4 in the world. Lastly, Serena Williams, despite losing early in Charleston and pulling out of Madrid, the world number one remained dominant on the red dirt. Since the start of the 2012 clay season, Williams has a 53-2 record on her worst surface.

As the French Open draws near, it is time to consider the players who have the potential of raising the Coupe des Mousquetaires (Men’s trophy) and the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen (Women’s trophy). In this two-part blog series, I will name my shortlist of contenders, dark horses and early upsets for both the men and women’s singles tournament.

    

Contenders

Serena Williams

• Why: The world number one may not have had the same amount of success that she did by this point last year; however, Williams has continued the form that has gotten her back to the top of women’s tennis. After pulling out of Madrid two weeks ago, Williams was unsure whether she would be able to defend her title in Rome. Luckily for the American, her leg responded well to treatment, and she was able to play the event. Despite having played only a handful of matches on clay this season, Williams remained dominant, winning the Italian Open for the third time. Serena Williams will have the pressure of defending her title at Roland Garros. However, if the American plays the way she did en-route to her title in Rome, it’s will be extremely difficult for anyone in the field to stop her.
• Why Not: After a season where the American won 11 titles, including two majors and the season-ending championships, it is not surprising that Williams is beginning to show signs of fatigue. The 32-year-old has also nursed several injuries throughout the season. Furthermore, if Williams is not 100% healthy going into the season’s second major, I have a hard time seeing her winning another French Open title.

Maria Sharapova

• Why: The 2012 French Open champion is finally regaining the form that saw her lift the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen two years ago. After dealing with a shoulder injury that kept her out of the game the second half of last year, Sharapova is enters the season’s second major with a lot of confidence. Despite having her ranking fall to number eight, the Russian has had a very successful clay court season. If Sharapova is able to stay away from Williams in the draw (she drew Williams in the quarterfinals), the Russian has a strong chance of making another French Open final. However, if Serena Williams were to be upset, Maria Sharapova would be my second pick to win the title. What was once her worst surface has now become Sharapova’s best. Look for the former world number one to have another strong showing at the French Open next week.
• Why Not: The one thing that will prevent Maria Sharapova from winning another French Open title is Serena Williams. The American has dominated the head-to-head; winning the last 15 times they have played. The determining factor in the matchup is movement. Sharapova is able to strike the ball with as much power as Williams; however, Williams has the ability to run down a majority of Sharapova’s shots. Lastly, if Sharapova were to end the American’s winning streak against her, the best chance she has is on a clay court.

Li Na

• Why: The world number two is arguably having the best year of her career. After a strong finish to the 2013 season, Li Na won her second major at the Australian Open. As a result of her play, the Chinese number one became the highest ranked Asian player in tennis history. The 2011 French Open champion enters this year’s tournament with renewed motivation. Much of the Chinese’s success has to be attributed to her coach, Carlos Rodriguez. Rodriguez, who formerly coached Belgian superstar Justine Henin, has helped Li become more consistent with her forehand, and at the net. With her improved game, and a coach of a four-time French Open champion in her corner, Li Na is definitely a player you want to keep your eye on at next week’s French Open.
• Why Not: Something that Li Na has struggled with throughout her career is maintaining her focus during matches. Even with her improved play over the last 12 months, the Chinese number one still experiences huge ebbs and flows in matches. A perfect example is the championship match against Serena Williams two months ago in Miami. Li Na started the final in dominant fashion, racing to a 5-2 lead against the defending champion. However, once Williams upped her level of play, Li Na’s game began to falter. The world number two managed to win only a single game the rest of the match. If Li Na wants to win her second French Open title, she must retain laser-like throughout her matches. Otherwise, the Chinese may make an early exit from the tournament.

Simona Halep

• Why: The Romanian is another player entering this year’s French Open at a career-high ranking. At this time last year, the world number four wasn’t even ranked in the Top 50. Over the past twelve months, Halep has won 7 titles; made her first career grand slam quarterfinal at the Australian Open; and has defeated Top 10 players Petra Kvitova, Agnieszka Radwanka, and Angelique Kerber. The in-form Romanian has had success at Roland Garros in the past, winning the junior championship in 2008. The slower court surface allows Halep to display her superior movement, while providing ample time to impose her aggressive game. Look for Halep to continue her impressive run on her favorite surface. 
• Why Not: There are several reasons to consider why the Romanian will not win her first grand slam title at next week’s French Open. First, Halep has never been past a grand slam quarterfinal. Will getting to the latter stages of a grand slam prove too much for Halep? Time will tell. Second, is the lack of power on Halep’s groundstrokes. Problems could arise if the Romanian is scheduled to play on a cold and damp day in Paris. The slower conditions will make it even more difficult for Halep to overpower her opponents. Simona Halep will never be a power player like Sharapova or Williams, which presents a huge challenge stepping on the clay courts of Roland Garros.    

Dark Horses

Ana Ivanovic: The 2008 French Open champion is playing the tennis that got her to the top of women’s tennis six years ago. Ivanovic’s resurgent season began in Auckland where she won her first title in over two years. At the Australian Open, the Serb defeated Serena Williams for the first time en-route to the quarterfinals. Ivanovic’s clay court campaign began with a runner-up showing in Stuttgart, losing to Maria Sharapova in three well-contested sets. At last week’s premier event in Rome, the former world number one continued her strong play, losing to Serena Williams in the semifinals in three sets. If Ivanovic can use her trademark forehand and powerful ground game effectively, the Serb could be a major treat to the top contenders.

Caroline Carcia: I know that the next two picks may be a little bit of a stretch, but I believe that if playing well, a player like Caroline Garcia can take down a top player on any given day. The in-form Frenchwomen captured her first WTA title last month in Bogota, and has recently cracked the Top 50. Garcia burst on the scene three years ago when she led a set and 4-1 against Maria Sharapova in the second round of the 2011 French Open. After several years of inconsistent play, the young Frenchwoman is finally beginning to put all the pieces together. The 20-year-old has huge weapons in the forehand and serve, which can cause trouble for the top players. Even though Garcia may not lift the trophy at this year’s French Open, the Frenchwoman is definitely a player you want to keep you eye on in the coming years as a contender for the title.

Sloane Stephens: The American is a player who plays her best tennis on the WTA’s biggest stages. Furthermore, despite having an up and down season to this point, Stephens is a player that can do some major damage at Roland Garros. The young American is a natural mover on the red clay. As a player who relies a little too heavily on her movement, the American is virtually a backboard on clay. In addition, the slow court surface suits Stephens’s playing style perfectly. Stephens is able to use her excellent defensive skills to eventually gain the upper hand in the rally. More importantly, the clay provides Stephens the opportunity to dictate with her huge forehand. If the young American is going to make a deep run at the French Open, she must show the desire that has eluded her for most of the 2014 season.          

Early Upsets

Petra Kvitova: Two words that I have used to describe Petra Kvitova since her incredible 2011 is unpredictable and inconsistent. The former world number two is the type of player who either plays fantastically and wins the tournament, or plays horrendously, losing in the first round. Since her semifinal run at the 2012 French Open, Kvitova has only made two quarterfinals at a major (both at Wimbledon). The Czech lefty will go into this year’s tournament with a 4-3 clay court record. Kvitova’s 2014 clay court season is a perfect example of the southpaw’s inconsistency. Following an opening round loss to Alisa Kleybanova in Stuttgart, Kvitova made a semifinal run in Madrid. Unfortunately, the very next week in Rome, the Czech would have another opening round exit to Shuai Zhang of China. Based on her inconsistent play of late, there is a strong possibility that Kvitova could be an early casualty. However, the unpredictability of her game could potentially result in a deep run by the 2011 Wimbledon champ.           

Angelique Kerber: The German left-hander has been struggling to find her form of late, especially on the clay. Kerber was winless on the red dirt until she won her opening round match in Nurnberg, Germany this week. The former U.S Open and Wimbledon semifinalist has the game to be a successful clay court player. She is one of the best defensive players in the world, and counterpunches extremely well. Can the world number nine reverse her fortunes and make the second week of the French? Most certainly! However, Kerber’s current form points to a potential early exit during the fortnight.   

Caroline Wozniacki: Back in 2011, if I predicted that Caroline Wozniacki, the world’s top player, would lose early at a major, my blog would probably be considered a farce. However, with the Dane struggling to regain the form that got her to the top of the women’s game, she is susceptible to the upset bug next week in Paris. Clay is Wozniacki’s weakest surface, as it exploits the blaring weaknesses in her game. Though the Dane defends extremely well on the surface, the lack of a huge weapon and racquet head speed on the forehand groundstroke results in her being easily overpowered by opponents. Caroline Wozniacki is one of the most talented young players on the WTA Tour. However, the Dane’s inability to find the form that catapulted her to the top, and the hindering weaknesses in her game, will result in an early round loss in Paris.   

Who do you believe are the contenders at tomorrow’s French Open? Let me know in the comments section below.

In my next blog I will be breakdown the interesting storylines during the fortnight at the French Open.  

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