Contenders
Rafael
Nadal
- Why: Simple, Rafael Nadal is the king of clay. The Spaniard has only one loss at Roland Garros in nine career appearances. In addition, Nadal’s eight titles at the clay court major are the most titles won by any male at a grand slam. Even though the world number one has struggled on the clay this season, winning only one of the three Masters Series events, it would be hard to bet against the greatest clay court player in history.
- Why Not: Following his Australian Open final loss to Stan Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal has not regained the dominance that got him back to number one in the world last year. The Spaniard suffered an unexpected loss to Alexandr Dolgopolov in Indian Wells, and has been unable to defeat Novak Djokovic in his last four attempts. In his last two matches against the Serb, Nadal took the opening set. However, the world number one was unable to capitalize on the set advantage, succumbing to Djokovic in three sets. If Nadal does not sharpen up his game, we might be seeing another player lift the Coupe des Mousquetaires at the end of the fortnight.
- Why: No player is hungrier than Novak Djokovic to win next week’s French Open. The clay court major is the only grand slam title eluding the 27-year-old Serb. After a dominant performance at last week’s Italian Open, Djokovic looks primed and ready to capture his first French Open title. The ideal situation for Djokovic, if facing Nadal in the final, is for a cold and damp day in Paris. When the two squared off in the 2012 French Open final, Djokovic nearly captured the title as a result of the playing conditions. The even slower court speed, coupled with the balls not kicking up as high, prevented Nadal from implementing his nearly unbeatable game plan. As a result, Djokovic was able to capitalize on the ineffectiveness of Nadal’s groundstrokes, dictating play on his terms. Unfortunately for the Serb, play was suspended at 2-1 in favor of Djokovic, with Nadal leading two sets to one. Djokovic would eventually fall in four tight sets; but the Serb proved that if the conditions are just right, he could pull off the massive upset.
- Why Not: A major concern for the world number two is the wrist-injury that forced Djokovic to pull out of Madrid two weeks ago. Fortunately for the Serb, he didn’t experience any setbacks at last week’s Italian Open. In order for Djokovic to dethrone the King of Clay, he must be 100% healthy. Moreover, if there is any lingering wrist pain heading into the season’s second major, the Serb’s chances of capturing his first French Open will be slim.
- Why: Following a strong finish to the end of 2013, Stan Wawrinka shocked the tennis world when he upset top-ranked Rafael Nadal to win this year’s Australian Open. More impressively, Wawrinka knocked out both Nadal and Djokovic, which is something only a select few players have accomplished, en-route to his first grand slam title. The Swiss number one enters this year’s French Open with endless confidence. Wawrinka began the clay court season in Monte Carlo, where he defeated his countrymen, Roger Federer, to capture his first Masters Series crown. At 29 years of age, Stan Wawrinka is finally realizing his potential as a top tennis player. Look for the world number three to use his powerful serve and trademark one-handed backhand to make a serious run for his first French Open title.
- Why Not: As a newly crowned grand slam champion, Wawrinka will be facing pressure that he has never experienced before. Now that tennis fans and experts know that Wawrinka is capable to winning major titles, he is expected to bring that same form to every grand slam. An interesting storyline at this year’s French Open will definitely be whether Wawrinka can handle the pressure and win another grand slam title. Expectation can have a debilitating effect on players following a successful run at a major. Lets hope that the talented Swiss doesn’t succumb to the tennis world’s relentless pressure.
- Why: One word to describe Federer 2014 season is resurgent. The 17-time grand slam champion has regained the form that helped him dominate the game for a decade. Following a semifinal appearance at the Australian Open, and two runner-up showings at the Masters Series events in Indian Wells and Monte Carlo, Federer is back in the Top 4 in the world. Even though clay is Federer’s worst surface, the Swiss legend is capable of winning the grand slam title that eluded him until 2009. Federer will likely have to defeat both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal if he is going to capture his second French Open title. Will this be an extremely difficult task? Yes. However, if anyone is going to pull off the seemingly impossible, there is no likely player than Roger Federer.
- Why Not: For the same reason Roger Federer could potentially win the French Open, is also a reason why he won’t win. Nadal and Djokovic are much better clay court players than Federer. Having to defeat the world’s top two players in back-to-back matches will require a Herculean effort to accomplish. In seven matches against Djokovic and Nadal at the French, Federer is winless against the Spaniard, and 1-1 against the Serb. As if his poor record against the two weren’t enough, Federer also has two new additions to his family. On May 6, Mirka Federer gave birth to twin boys, Leo and Lenny. Having two newborns to care for during a grand slam tournament will only make winning a major on your worst surface more difficult. Is it realistic to think that Federer can win the French Open without some help during the fortnight? In reality, no.
Grigor
Dimitrov: The 2014 season has proven
to be the coming out party for Grigor Dimitrov. The Bulgarian made his first
grand slam quarterfinal at the Australian Open, and captured his first ATP 500
title in Acapulco. Dimitrov was a highly publicized junior player, where he
earned the nickname “Baby Fed.” However, the success he achieved as a junior
did not translate immediately to the pro tour. Now 23 years of age, Dimitrov,
with the help of coach Roger Rasheed, is finally able to handle the physicality
of the game. The Bulgarian has one of the most aesthetically pleasing games,
which translates to every surface. Even though Dimitrov has not proven that he
is able to take down one of the Big Four, look for the talented Bulgarian to make
a splash at this year’s French Open.
Tomas
Berdych: At 28 years of age, Tomas
Berdych is in the prime of his career. Possessing one of the most powerful
games on the ATP Tour, the 6’5” Czech is capable of going deep at a slam. In
fact, Berdych has made the semifinals of every major, highlighted by a
runner-up finish at Wimbledon in 2010. A prevalent theme on the ATP Tour in
2014 is players making a breakthrough. Wawrinka made a huge breakthrough by
winning the title in Australia; while Kei Nishikori, who I will discuss shortly,
became the first Japanese male to crack the Top 10. Why can’t someone like
Tomas Berdych join the breakthrough party? Based on the events that have
transpired in 2014, there is a chance we may have to add Berdych’s name to this
season’s breakthrough list.
Kei
Nishikori: The
Japanese number one has achieved several firsts this season. Previously
mentioned, he became the first Japanese male to crack the Top 10 in singles. In
addition, he also made his first Masters Series final in Madrid, where he was
up a set and a break on defending champion, Rafael Nadal. Unfortunately for
Nishikori, he was forced to retire midway through the third-set because of a hip
injury. Much of the Japanese’s success this season is due to a coaching change.
At the beginning of 2014, Nishikori began working with Hall-of-Famer Michael
Chang. The effects of Chang’s coaching were immediate. Nishikori began the year
with a round of 16 showing at the Australian Open, and a semifinal result at
the Sony Open in Miami. The world number ten would make even greater strides on
the clay, winning the tournament in Barcelona and nearly winning the tournament
in Madrid. If Nishikori can stay healthy, which is always a major concern, look
for the highest ranked Japanese player in history to make it deep into the
second week at Roland Garros.
Early Upsets
John
Isner: The 6’9” American’s 2014
season has contained mixed results. Following a title run in Auckland to begin
the season, Isner was forced to retire in his opening match at the Australian
Open. By virtue of another semifinal run at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian
Wells, Isner secured his return to the top 10. Unfortunately, since the lanky
American stepped on the clay in Houston, he has struggled to win matches. In 3
clay court tournaments, Isner has won a total of 2 matches. The tennis world is
well aware of the American’s lack of success on the clay. Possessing the
biggest one-two punch in the game with his serve and forehand, Isner is capable
of winning on the red dirt. However, based on his current form, I don’t expect
the American to make much of an impact at Roland Garros.
Tommy
Robredo: At last year’s French Open,
Tommy Robredo was the Cinderella story of the tournament. After an extended
period away from the game, the Spaniard saw his ranking fall well outside the
top 100 in the world. Prior to the tournament, few people had Robredo on their
radar to make a deep run. The Spaniard would prove everybody wrong, making an
inspiring run to the quarterfinals, where he would lose to his compatriot,
David Ferrer. Unfortunately, Robredo has not been able to find the form that
got him back into the top 20. Plagued with injury, the Spaniard has been unable
to achieve consistent results this season. Although I am not expecting another
deep run from Robredo, he has proven the tennis world wrong before.
Tommy
Haas: At 36-years-old, Tommy Haas
still looks as fit as the day he turned pro. After countless surgeries, and
extended periods away from the game, the German is back to playing at the level
that got him to number two in the world. Haas nearly secured his spot back in
the top 10 last year following a strong start to 2013. Unfortunately, Haas’
2014 season has followed a similar trend to Robredo. Injuries have forced the
German to retire from his opening match at the Australian Open, as well as the
Masters Series Events in Miami and Rome. If the shoulder injury Haas sustained
in Rome is serious, he may be unable to defend the quarterfinal points he
accumulated from 2013.
Who do you believe are the
contenders at tomorrow’s French Open? Let me know in the comments section
below.
In my next blog I will be breakdown
the story-lines during the fortnight at the French Open.
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