Buy, Sell or Hold: Simona Halep

Over the past 12 months, the hottest player on tour other than Serena Williams has been Simona Halep. The 22-year-old, from Constanta Romania, has won seven titles, including Doha and New Haven. More impressively, the six titles Halep collected in 2013 were achieved without a coach. With the Romanian’s recent success, she has begun to gain the attention of players and spectators alike. Before discussing the reasons to buy, sell or hold the stock of the talented Romanian, I will answer the question, “Who is Simona Halep?”

Prior to becoming a Top 5 player on the WTA Tour, Simona Halep achieved great success on the junior tour. The Romanian was the number one junior in the world back in 2008. Her credits include winning the 2008 French Open Junior Championships, as well as a semi-final showing at the Australian Open Junior Championships that same year. In 2010, at the age of 18, Halep made her first splash on the WTA Tour, making the final in Fès Morocco. The Romanian would finish the year ranked No. 81, her first Top 100 season.

Halep would break into the Top 50 for the first time in 2011 following another runner-up finish in Fès, and a third-round appearance at the Australian Open. Unfortunately, Halep endured a difficult 2012 season, falling in the first-round 11 times. Moreover, after a 7-9 start to the 2013 season, the Romanian would go on one of the most impressive runs in recent memory. In the next 14 WTA main draws Halep contested, the Romanian would go 43-8, highlighted by six WTA titles; a semifinal appearance in Rome; a quarterfinal showing in Cincinnati; and her first fourth-round appearance at a major (U.S Open). Halep concluded her breakthrough season with a win at the Tournament of Champions in Sofia, Bulgaria. As a result of her impressive streak, Halep would finish the year a career-high No. 11.

Halep’s strong play continued at the start of the 2014 season. The 5’6” Romanian would reach her first career grand slam quarterfinal at the Australian Open, defeating eighth-seeded Jelena Jankovic along the way. Several weeks later, Halep captured the biggest title of her career at the premier-event in Doha, defeating three Top 10 players en-route ([4] Errani, [2] Radwanska, and [6] Kerber). The Romanian made history after yet another strong showing at the BNP Paribas Open. Following her quarterfinal win over Australian Casey Dellacqua, Halep became the first Romanian to be ranked Top 5 in the world.         

Now that I have reviewed Halep’s career, examining the red-hot Romanian’s potential moving forward is the next logical step. As Halep continues her rapid accent up the rankings, her stock has become increasingly enticing for tennis investors. In this blog I will provide reasons why buying Halep’s stock is a worthwhile option, as well as reasons to sell or hold her stock.

Reasons to Buy

1. Improved Strokes: One of the reasons for Halep’s recent success is her improved groundstrokes. The Romanian possesses a solid backhand groundstroke. However, Halep’s forehand tends to break down because of the big backswing she takes to produce the shot. Over the past twelve months, Halep has shortened her backswing, as well as adjusted the contact point of her forehand, producing a much more consistent groundstroke. Coupled with the added pop on her shots, Simona Halep has two extremely solid groundstrokes, which she has used to take down some of the game’s top players.  
2. Newly Found Confidence: Every athlete knows that winning is accompanied with confidence. Now more than ever, the Romanian, despite her diminutive statute, believes that she can beat the top players. When a tennis player is confident, I recognize two things: the player trusts their shots, resulting in precise shot placement, and less unforced errors; and when in a tight match, the player still has a strong belief that they can win. The red-hot Romanian has proven what confidence can do for a player. Look for her to use this confidence to take her to the next level of the women’s game.     
3. Still Has Room To Improve: At just 22 years of age, Simona Halep still has areas of her game that she can improve. Her transition and net game are arguably the weakest part of her game. As an aggressive baseline player, moving forward in the court to take shots out of the air allow Halep to put even more pressure on opponents. Another shot the Romanian could improve is her second serve. Halep possesses a smooth service motion that she utilizes effectively given her height. If Halep could add a few MPHs to her second serve, it would help her win a higher percentage of service points.   
4. Almost In Her Prime: The days of teenagers winning grand slam titles are a thing of the past. Players in today’s game are developing later in their careers. Take Li Na for example. The world No. 2 won her first grand slam title at age 29, and her second at age 31. Turning 23 in September, Simona Halep is heading into the prime years of her career. As the Romanian continues to mature physically, look for her game to develop too. 
5. Going deep at the bigger events: Coinciding with her newly found confidence, Simona Halep is beginning to make an impression at the bigger WTA events. At the last three majors, Halep has made the second round (Wimbledon), the fourth round (U.S. Open), and the quarterfinals (Australian Open). The Romanian proved that she could go deep at the premier events during last year’s Internazionali BNL d’Italia. As a qualifier, Halep won six matches en-route to the semifinals, where she lost to the eventual champion, Serena Williams. As long as Simona Halep can sustain the confidence she has accumulated in the past year, look for her to continue being present during the latter stages of the biggest WTA Tour events.  

Reasons to Sell

1. Physical Limitations: At 5’6”, 132 lbs., Simona Halep is one of the smaller players on tour. Being a tennis player that is diminutive in stature presents several challenges when it comes to their game. The first is the effectiveness of the serve. Even though Halep has great placement on her serve, the problem lies in the amount of pace she can generate on the shot. If not placed effectively, the Halep serve is a shot that players can batter. Another challenge for the Romanian is the lack of power on her groundstrokes. Most players her size rely heavily on their movement and shot placement. However, if Halep wants to be more competitive against the players like Maria Sharapova or the Williams Sisters, the Romanian must add more power to her shots. The third challenge lies in the player’s reach, or lack there of. Fortunately for Halep, she possesses great foot speed. However, when returning serve or playing a powerful opponent, the Romanian will struggle to get a racquet on shots like a short slice-serve or a flat serve down the middle. If Simona Halep wants to remain a Top 5 player, she must learn to compensate for her size disadvantage. These challenges are significant enough to consider selling Halep’s stock.             

Reasons to Hold

1. Too Soon To Determine Consistency: Simona Halep began her impressive run midway through the 2013 season. For this reason, I believe that it may be too soon to tell whether the Romanian can sustain her high level of play. Typically players who breakthrough on the WTA Tour can only sustain their success for a short period of time. A perfect example would be Germany’s Angelique Kerber. The German made her breakthrough at the 2011 U.S. Open, where she made the semifinals as the 92^nd ranked player in the world. Kerber was able to break into the Top 5 in the world after having a successful 2012 season. Even though Kerber still remains in the WTA Top 10, the German has not been able to maintain the consistency that got her to two grand slam semifinals. Similar to calling a state in a Presidential election, it is still too soon to call whether Simona Halep can maintain her consistent level of play.    
2. The Hunted: As a player reaches the upper echelon of tennis, their role changes for being the hunter to the hunted. For most of Simona Halep’s career, she has occupied the hunter role. Now ranked No. 5 in the world, the Romanian has to deal with a casting change. How Halep deals with the added pressure of being a top player is still to be determined. For this reason, I believe that further analysis is required before determining whether Halep has what it takes to survive the hunters.   

Verdict

Based on my analysis of Simona Halep, it would be a wise decision to invest in the Romanian’s stock. The Romanian possesses an all-around game that translates to every surface. Improvements to her serve and volley game, along with adding power to her shots will help Halep against the bigger, more powerful players on the tour. Based on her success in the juniors and on tour in the past year, the Romanian is capable of winning grand slam titles. At 22 years of age, Simona Halep is one of the brightest young stars on the WTA Tour. I look forward to observing how Halep develop as a player, as well as watching how much she can achieve despite her diminutive stature.  

What are your thoughts on the talented Romanian? Please let me know in the comments section below!

In my next blog, I am beginning another new blog series What if…? 

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